Considering solar proposals in Scottsdale, AZ. Would you please look over this and let me know if I'm on track and getting fair quotes?

Considering solar proposals in Scottsdale, AZ. Would you please look over this and let me know if I'm on track and getting fair quotes?

We just moved and bought a home in Northern Scottsdale, Arizona. I've gotten several proposals already from SolarCity, SunRun, and 2 local installers, and I'm waiting to talk with Vivint later today.

I appreciate anyone who has the time to read this AND then critique it and provide some comments. This took me a good while to gather everything together and write up. If I made a mistake somewhere I'm happy to correct it!

Details on the home and my situation:

• Built in mid 70's - has newer double pane windows, brand new foam roof coating, surprisingly well insulated house (according to A/C techs doing estimates on A/C replacement)
• Home faces north/south, so the panels would be on the flat roof oriented South
• I should get plenty of sun wherever the panels get installed, there is limited shade up there
• Moved in at the start of August, so yes, I've had the summer A/C bills
• Older American Standard/Trane Packaged Heat Pump - currently getting quotes to replace with a newer 2-stage Trane
• We do have a pool pump (we run it at night and more on the weekends)
• I'm on the APS Noon-7 plan, probably end up switching to the saver plus plan which will see higher rates from 3PM - 8PM
• About 2300 sq ft
• Yearly KwH is currently averaging out to 23,000-24,000 kw
• My average off peak usage is around 83% and my on peak usage is around 17% this last month
• My peak kw usage per day seems to be around 3,000. I expect this could go down some when I replace the A/C.
• Replaced nearly every bulb with LED (marginal difference but I'm sure its helpful in the long run)
• I'm meeting with my first CPA tomorrow to go over my returns, and I'm 99% sure already that the ITC credit will be worth my time
• NO HOA!
• Planning on living here at least 10 years
• Upgraded to a Nest thermostat around Sep, I think it helped immediately
• The 200Amp breaker is newer and should be able to handle a standard installation (so I'm told)

We aren't buying with cash up front, so we're looking at the loan option. No lease, no PPA. Don't qualify for a HELOC (brand new home). I think I'd be looking at a more aggressive short term loan and work on paying it off extra each month to pay it off early. Sure, I won't see shorter monthly bills to start, but it would be good long term and we're ok with that.

Proposals

• SunRun through Costco The rep broke down a bunch of numbers and was actually very helpful and seemed knowledgable. Suggested 2 possible plans, with and without a battery

• With battery (battery is LG Chem at 5kW i think) - 11.12 kW system and LG Chem battery. The proposal suggests this will offset 80% of average consumption, and I understand the battery will help me avoid peak charges. Makes sense. 39 Longi panels, 2 Solar Edge inverter, should generate 18,400 kW/yr. Price - $40,500. Minus ITC, $1k AZ credit and Costco Cash and Executive Cash = $24,550. If I'm getting the cost per watt correct its $24,550ish/11,120kw = $2.20/watt. If that is correct, I think this is a fair price per watt, and the battery. *Without battery - 14.82kW system. Total price = $44,460. Minus 30%ITC and $1kAZ credit, minus Costco credits - $27,720. Should work out to $1.87/watt. Less, but yeah, no battery. Do I need the battery? I dunno

• SolarCity/Tesla The rep showed up on time, but didn't seem very professional. A lot of "Bro, your bills are going to be insane. No bro, seriously, like super high". I look like I'm college age, and I'm chill, but cmon, we're talking tens of thousands of dollars here, this isn't fist bump time. I digress. He spec'd out a 15kw system. He said any bigger and my breaker would need to be upgraded which they won't cover. And apparently it would cost $4k to get that done. So, 15kw system, generating 22,148kwH, offsetting 93%. Cost - $44,700. After 30% ITC and $1kAZ credit = $30,290. So that works out to $2.09/watt. Not bad.

• Local installer #1 The rep just emailed a proposal, no in house visit. Fine, if it saves money this is ok to start. Their system is spec'd to 14,700kw which the proposal suggests will offset 102% of consumption. There are 49 Hyundai mono panels, 1x Solar Edge 10kw and 1x SolarEdge 3kw, x49 solar edge optimizers, ZigBee monitoring device. Modules and inverters = ~$22k. The rest = ~$19k. Grand total = $41,219. After the 30% ITC, $1k AZ credit, its at $27,853. Works out to $1.89/watt. Definitely beats sunrun.

• Local installer #2 The rep was alright, very friendly. Didn't share tons of specific details. Apparently he does most of his sales further north near Anthem, and rarely comes down to my area. He told me he used to work at SolarCity, and if I wanted to SolarCity would price match. Good to know. He spec'd out at 12kW system. 40xLG mono panels, Solar Edge inverters, some sort of online monitoring. Claims I would generate 20,000kw in the first year, seems a bit aggressive and optimistic. Total price = $33,000. So that minues 30% ITC and $1k AZ credit = $22,100. Cost per watt should be $1.57/watt. Now thats low!

Cost per watt least $ to highest $$$:

1. Local installer #2 = $1.57/watt for 12kW system
2. SunRun no battery = $1.87/watt for 14.82kW system
3. Local installer #1 = $1.89/watt for 14.7kW system
4. SolarCity = $2.09/watt for 15kW system
5. SunRun + Battery = $2.20/watt for 11kW system with battery

I don't "need" to go solar. Our highest bill in Sep was like $320ish. Yes, it will go up. But replacing the A/C pronto should help some now and in the long run. But I want to consider this as an option for the long term savings, and I'm not sure which I should pick and if I should do it. This is obviously a big decision.

Thanks for the help!

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